Trust me, I've a Master's in Economics

"House prices are at a record high. People can't afford to pay their mortgages. Interest rates are going up. House prices are going to go down, just wait six months. Trust me."

- my Dad, on Melbourne property prices, 2005-present

In 2005, I could buy a run-down, 30 year old house in Blackburn for $350,000. In 2008, the same house would cost $500,000. In 2005, I wanted to start buying, and my dad told me that there wasn't a rush. Nowadays, my dad looks through the property section and shakes his head. "Too expensive", he mutters. "Just image how hard it would be for the the average person to pay off the mortgage.".

I just image what his back would look like with dagger wounds.

In one sense, I'm a statistic of the Melbourne property boom, the one which was caused by the generous negative gearing incentives introduced by the Howard government, the flood of new Melbourne residents, the chronic lack of housing, and the almost psychotic need for the quarter-acre block. The baby-boomers sank their retirement funds into property. The residents protested about high-density development. The government refused to let the urban sprawl continue. Which leaves little poor me stuck in the middle without a house to call my home.

In another sense, however, I'm a statistic of the guy who has a compulsion to believe in authority figures. If only... In the time between 2005 and now, there were a few houses I liked. When I asked my dad's opinion, however, he'd always tell me to wait. And like a fucking fool, I agreed with him.

Now, you might wonder what my lack of nerve has to do to Arsenal. But the discerning amongst you would realise that my dad's attitude is remarkably like that of Wenger's - the refusal to pay the going price, purely because the market value is above what any sensible person would pay.

As a metaphor:

1. Ribery is the house on Wavell Rd, Box Hill - $345,000 in 2004, now worth $525,000.
2. SWP is the house on Kangeroo Crt, Wantirna - $290,000 in 2004, now worth $400,000.
3. Torres is a unit on Brougham Street, Box Hill - $300,00 in 2004, now worth $400,000; and I've always had the feeling that if I'd bought this unit then, it would've been the difference between 3rd place and the Premiership.

The thing is that the talent pool, which had always been a bit opaque, has become crystal clear. You won't find the next Pele in the favelas, or the next Maradonna in the slums around Buenos Aires. Scouting networks are wider, better financed and more precise. Every top club in the world has a folder on every top youngster in the world. The days of picking up an unknown in France or Brazil are long gone. Pato was bought for 15 million by Milan when he was still 17. Benzema won't leave Lyonnais for less than 30 million. These are the market prices for the best youngsters in the world. If we're serious about recruiting the best, we've got to start paying the market rate.

Once, I was so frustrated about my dad's negativity that I vented to my mum. She made a rather astute observation - my dad's old, and he's frightened because he knows what can go wrong. My dad's been burnt by the property market - in fact, looking back, he's done the exact wrong move at the wrong time, for as long as I can remember. He doesn't trust the boom, because he doesn't trust his judgment.

It made me realise that the reason you can take risks when you're young is because you haven't been burnt yet. You don't know how it can go wrong, and you've got no experience about how much it can hurt. You don't have much of a stake in anything, so if you lose, you can always start again. It's different when you've a mortgage, kids to feed, and responsibilities. You've got to be sensible, and you've got to err on the side of caution.

I think we're blinded by Wenger's Master's of Economics into thinking he's some financial wizard. Yes, he spots kids that no one else does. Yes, he is brilliant with crafting technical young teams. Yes, it's incredible that he breaks even in the transfer market. But we've also got to realise that he's also a 60-ish dad who's seen it all before, and knows that if he pumps $30 million on a Torres, there's every chance that things will go wrong. He's seen Reyes shine like the sun, and flicker out in the cold. He's seen Anelka throw a hissy-fit and go to Real Madrid. He's seen our Ashley turn into the most hated man in England. He knows that Torres could've been like that. And if we'd bought him, there was a huge risk that he would've failed in England.

So next time we see a starlet slip through our fingers, and hear Wenger say "I would've like to buy him, but he was too expensive", I'm going to try and understand it from his point of view.

Oh, and if my brother's reading, don't tell Dad - especially about the stab wounds.