Cesc Sera, Sera

"I don't know what will happen either tomorrow or in a year or in five years."

- Cesc Fabregas, philosophising about stuff

In a sense, Cesc is right - you never know what's going to happen tomorrow. Life is such an unlikely event that even waking up in the morning should be considered a minor miracle. We exist because oxygen is soluble in blood and binds to haemoglobin, because our hearts beat in a constant rhythm from the day we're born, and because we can somehow derive consciousness from the connections between millions of fatty sheathed neurones in our heads. We take it for granted, but when you think about it, you realise how unlikely the whole set it is. And when you think about that, the idea that you can plan for something to occur in a week, or a year or five years seems absurd. 

Then again, some things are immutable. van Persie getting injured during an international match is something that's as constant as the sun, taxes and that queasy bellyache you get after eating too much KFC. van Persie injured his ankle in a match against Italy, and he's going to be out of for a few months. It's a shame, because he'd just adapted to the lone-striker role at Arsenal. 

But most things in life are ever-changing. Take the Arsenal - our season's in a state of flux at the moment. If we can improve the defence and compensate for van Persie's injury, we've a great chance of winning the league. If the kids improve, we'll have enormous depth on the bench. If we strengthen in January, we can finally paper over the weak areas of our team. But if we don't do any of it, we're likely to slide out of contention by February. It'll take a cleverer man than me to predict the trajectory of our season with any sense of confidence. 

As Cesc intimated, and as Doris Day once sang, what will be, will be. The future's not ours to see. For example, take my nephew George:

He's a bright kid. He was born a month premature, but he's already mouthing words at 4 months of age. He's also got good taste - he only wears Huggies nappies. He's also already got a very Arsenal name (and I'm wondering if it's possible to get a vintage kid's size Charlie George shirt for him). On the face of it, he'd make a perfect little gooner.  But in light of his intelligence, I'm not so sure. 

I've been speculating about the right time to turn him into an Arsenal fan, but I'm starting to doubt my persuasive abilities. He's a very smart baby, and by the time he's able to comprehend what football is, he'll probably realise that Barcelona are a much better prospect than Arsenal. Why should he follow the second most beautiful football club in the world when he can follow the best? I can hope that he'll come around to support Arsenal for sentimental reasons (his Charlie George shirt and all), but I'm not so sure.

So what'll happen in the future, in one year and then in five? I'll influence him the best I can. But while he might trot around in a Charlie George shirt at 3 years of age, he might've switched to a Messi shirt by the time he's 7. I don't know.

As Cesc puts it, I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow. 

New Zealand at the World Cup

Where's the justice in this?

When Australia were in Oceania, our last four World Cup qualification play-off opponents were Argentina, Iran, Uruguay and Uruguay. We lost marginally against Argentina. We were 20 minutes away from qualification against Iran. We lost to Uruguay under Frank Farina, and we won on penalties against them under Guus Hiddink. We played some genuinely tough games, in some of the most partisan locations imaginable. 

One of the main reasons we switched to the Asian Confederation was to get a fairer World Cup qualification route. It's fairer to play in two home-and-away groups for qualification, rather than a sudden-death play-off position every four years.  But now that we've left Oceania, we've given that rather tough qualification scenario to New Zealand. And so, what does New Zealand have to do to qualify for the World Cup? 

New Zealand have to beat Bahrain at home. 

That's it.

They've done the hard work and drawn 0-0 against Bahrain away. Bahrain took the unusual step of acclimatising for a chilly, wet Wellington in a heat-wave struck Sydney. All New Zealand have to do is show up in front of 35,000 home fans, keep it tight at the back and score a goal. It's not exactly difficult. They just have to practice the dour, negative football that they showed at the Confederations Cup. 

I've got mixed emotions about this. 

Part of me thinks that they're going to get through this too easily. World Cup qualification should be hard, dammit. They have to be earned. You have to endure early morning defeats and the chilling reality that it'll be another four years until the next chance comes around. You can't expect to rock up to a World Cup by playing Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands, and then a play-off with Bahrain. Where's the brave 1-1 draw in front of 120,000 fanatical fans in Tehran? The rioters at Montevideo? The cynical antics of those bastardly South Americans? It's not a World cup qualification unless you've faced all of that for 32 years. 

Part of me wishes New Zealand well. I realise that it's politically correct to barrack for the Asian side. We are in the Asian Confederation now. But I can't help but wish New Zealand makes it. It could be their only realistic chance of qualification for a long, long time. I can't imagine FIFA like the prospect of New Zealand getting through from such a weak route. 

But most of me is really, really excited by the prospect of a World Cup group featuring Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and England. If that happens, I think it's a realistic possibility that we can knock England out of the World Cup. England don't travel well. South Africa are at home and, despite being a basket-case, should cobble enough points to get through. New Zealand won't win anything but they'll try their best to hobble England's players. And Australia are awesome. 

So it's possible. If there's one thing better than qualifying for the World Cup, it's doing over England while in the World Cup. That's the whole reason the World Cup was invented, after all. All these countries want a chance to thump England in a meaningful match. And come next year, it might be our turn.

But first, New Zealand's got to win tonight's match.

Song's right - running is hard work

Lately, I've taken up running. I've never done it before, and it's hard work. I've downloaded a series of podcasts that's designed to turn me from a couch potato to a decent runner in 9 weeks. It's challenging. So far, I get about 8 minutes worth of actual running in a 30 minute period. The rest of the time is spent walking, gasping for breath and wheezing in a sickly manner.

Which brings me to Alex Song. 

I admit, I was one of those people who got on his case for not running around on the pitch. It upset me to see him loping around in a casual manner while we were being over-run in the midfield. It offended me to see him walking around while Flamini, his predecessor, would've been pressing and harrying for the full 90 minutes. But maybe I was being too hard on him. Running is hard work, and running around for 90 minutes a game might be asking too much of a 20 year old with more important things on his mind. 

But hopefully, Alex Song will start running again soon. I hope he does, because he's a good player when he does. I was shocked late last season when Alex Song started running around in midfield. I think around the time of the CL semi-finals, he was close to being our best player. He was pressing, and positionally aware, and bossing the midfield with his physique. That's the kind of player we all want Song to be. 

One DM to whom we've been perennially linked, Yaya Toure, has been - surprise, surprise - linked with us again. Now, this is a guy who Song should try to emulate. He's strong and good in the tackle, he's positionally sound and he drives forward, and what's more important, he can run. There's very little chance we'll buy him (the main reason we were after him was to reunite him with Kolo) but we need someone like him to protect the midfield and give a physical presence. Despite all the artistry on display, we need a midfield warrior to boss the opposition. 

I think Alex Song can still be that warrior, but he's got to start running again - even if it's hard work. I know it's tough. The first few weeks will be spent wheezing, choking and gasping for breathe. But we'll be a better team for it. 

(I didn't watch) Arsenal 4, Wolves 1

"A personal reservation about this phase of Wenger's game-altering reign in English football is that he may have taken a brilliant idea to an unworkable extreme, and left Arsenal short of warriors to pick the team up and drive it forward, as Patrick Vieira and Emmanuel Petit did."

- Paul Hayward, saying it for all of us

How good is this Arsenal side? 

3-0 against Spurs. 4-1 against Alkmaar. And 4-1 last night against Wolves last night. I didn't watch it, though. I had a nap which, unfortunately, went on for the rest of the night. Still, I can't help but feel cheered by the result. We're developing a real momentum now. The frustrating Arsenal of previous seasons (lots of possession with no goals) seems to be a thing of the past. 

But the question remains, can we win anything with this side?

On the whole, I'm not convinced. We conceded a weak goal last night in the last couple of minutes. While it didn't effect the result, it's a worrying sign. Defensive lapses are habit-forming. If we don't take pride in clean sheets, then we're going to keep conceding easy goals, and it's going to hurt us in the end. Just think back to West Ham a few weeks ago. If we don't tighten up at the back, there are going to be more West Hams this season, and it will cost us in the end. 

There's a good article by Paul Hayward in the Guardian about this problem. The Arsenal bandwagon is the prettiest bandwagon in the Premier League. When the team's on a roll, supporting the Arse is the easiest thing in the world. It's only when the bandwagon loses steam, fucks up at the back, loses points and ends up empty-handed at the end of the season that you feel you're getting jibbed. 

What I really want to see in January are a couple of purchases: a good goalkeeper and a defensive midfielder who can fill in at centre-back.  Almunia's been reinstated as our 1st choice 'keeper, which I feel is the wrong decision. He's solid 90% of the time, but it's the other 10% that's going to kill us by the end of the season. And we need someone to take over from Song, at least while the ACN is on. I have nightmares that Diaby will be playing as our holding midfielder in January. Wenger needs to understand that just because a man looks like Vieira, he's not necessary going to play like him. And anyway, Diaby doesn't look like Vieira without the shaved head. 

It's not going to happen, though. I'm resigned to that. Arsene Wenger is a purist. He doesn't believe in defending. He believes in passing, movement, technique and selecting players that look like other players. So come January, Almunia's still going to be around, and he'll concede a couple near-post goals and then talk to the media about our "new-found resolve". And Diaby will be a holding midfielder who can't tackle. I hope he shaves his head so that, at least, he'll bear a passing resemblance to Vieira. That'll help. 

Still, if the goals continue, this may be bunk and Arsenal may win the league this year. And if that happens, Arsene Wenger will probably take it to another extreme and play a 1-3-4-1 next season to accommodate the freakish talents of Vela, Wilshere and Ramsey.

I'd stay up to watch that. 

I was wrong, Arsene Knows

"We have certainly not had so many creative options before. This was without Nicklas Bendtner, Theo Walcott, Carlos Vela and Denilson while Eduardo and Tomas Rosicky did not start. That's why I was always amazed people told me to buy, buy, buy."

- Arsene Wenger, sticking two proverbial fingers at me

I was wrong. Arsene Knows. We don't need to buy. After thumping Tottenham last weekend 3-0 and thumping AZ Alkmaar last night 4-1, we're don't need to buy. We have the requisite creative options already. 

van Persie is purring in his role as a central striker. We don't need a big centre forward who can handle two defenders on his own, play with his back to the goal and run the channels. We just needed someone like van Persie with good touch, good vision, and a left foot should be donated to the Louvre once van Persie's career has finished.

Fabregas has scored 3 goals in 2 games, and he's been brilliant. Great goal against Tottenham. Two goals last night. He was a prolific scorer as a kid, and now he's showing that he can be just as prolific as an adult. He doesn't have to play deeper to be truly effective. He's seeing less of the ball now, but his possessions are now more decisive. 

Vermaelen is the ballsy, steely, tough-as-nuts defender we've been missing. Just because he's a couple of inches under 6 foot, doesn't mean he's crap. And he wades forwards to score goals. It just shows that you shouldn't dismiss short, pasty-white Belgians as useless until you've seen them in action. 

We've still a creaky defence. We still need a better 'keeper. We still need a defensive midfielder to take over from Song when he goes to the ACN. Without those reinforcements, we're going to have more West Ham moments. One needs to keep that in mind in the midst of all the hyperbole. But still, if we can keep thumping in the goals in like we've been doing all season, how much does it really matter? I think we've been averaging 3 goals a game in the league, and has anyone managed that and not won anything? 

I know that in Championship Manager, it's pretty difficult not to be a dominant force if you're scoring that much every game. Typically, I finish a season with about 95 points, 100 goals for, 30 goals against. I lose 1-2 games a year and maybe draw five. We're on target for a season like that. It would be incredible if we don't finish in the Top 2 if we keep up this scoring. 

It's going to be a fun season, whatever happens. 

Arsenal, Tottenham and Vampire Weekend

Walcott, don't you know that it's insane

Don't you want to get out of Cape Cod?

Out of Cape Cod tonight?

Walcott, Vampire Weekend

It's the North London Derby tonight. 

It's been a long time since our infamous 4-4 draw last season. That was a watershed game for us. Before that game, we were still a good side. Although we'd sold Flamini and Hleb and strangely, their replacements had been doing well enough that we could be considered a title contender. I think we were 2nd or 3rd at that point. 

But after that 4-4 draw, the wheels came off. We had a lacklustre run of draws and defeats that we didn't really break until February, when Theo Walcott came back and we bought Arshavin. After that, the damage was done. We were stuck with the uncomfortable realisation that, despite Wenger's silky PR skills, the Arsenal weren't good enough to win the league.

A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then. The team's changed formation. We've sold Toure and Adebayor, and picked up Vermaelen and Arshavin. Song's realised that he's a much better footballer when he runs instead of jogs. And the rest of us have realised that we're going to keep treading water until either this bunch of kids come good or.... I don't know.

In the meantime, other clubs are improving. Aston Villa gave us a scare last year with a very consistent season. Man City's going to be a serious threat, either this year or next. And even Tottenham are getting uppity and thinking of themselves as our equals. 

The automatic reaction to this idea is derision. Peter Hill-Wood's statement at the AGM ("we don't consider them as rivals") brought laughter from the shareholders, and with good reason. Tottenham have been serial under-achievers for most of their history. I don't think they've beaten us in a league game since I've started following the Arsenal. 

But if you start comparing the teams, man for man, you might be surprised. Who would you take from the following: King and Woodgate vs Gallas and Vermaelen? Gomes vs whichever Arsenal keeper has fucked up the least? Palacios vs Song? These are the areas which have been neglected for the past five years, and it shows. Going forward, we're as talented as the best in the world. Going back, and we're as good (or bad) as Tottenham. 

It's a sobering thought. 

Another sobering thought is Vampire Weekend. I don't like all this newfangled music that the kids play nowadays. It's strange and weird. I'd rather snuggle up in my flannels and listen to the grunge of my youth. But I like Vampire Weekend. I like their Upper West Side Soweto - whatever that mean. And I like how they write allegorical songs about Theo Walcott and Arsenal's inability to get out of "Cape Cod". 

Personally, I like to consider their Cape Cod reference to be about Plymouth, and how the Pilgrims' gauche attempts at colonisation eventually founded a country as diverse and dynamic as the US. And I think Vampire Weekend are comparing America's humble beginnings with Arsenal's humble, fumbled attempts at Premier League dominance. The Pilgrims had problems planting corn. We had problems with a player with corn-rows (i.e. Adebayor). And like the Pilgrims, we've got to get out of Cape Cod - or I'm going to go fucking insane following this Club. 

All in all, Walcott is a very good allegorical summary of Arsenal's current situation. And to think it came from a bunch of college kids from New York. What will those crazy Yankees think of next?

I want to buy an iMac

My desktop PC has been dying over the past couple of years. When I turn it on, it wheezes like a sick old man with emphysema. It chugs along gamely whenever it's overloaded (three windows of Firefox usually overwhelms it). And it takes ages to turn off, as if it knows that it doesn't have much time left.

Lately, I've found myself cheating on my desktop. There's an Apple Store near my house, and I've spent an increasing amount of time admiring their wares. I love the iMacs. They're so sleek and stylish, and who cares if they don't have the grunt of a Wintel PC? There are more things in life than graphics cards and processing power. The iMac is beautiful - so beautiful that it inspires people to take photos of their computer and post it on the internet.

Whether that's the proper way of expressing affection for a machine is another story altogether.

Still, I have reservations. I bought my MacBook about a year ago, and I have great affection for it. For the six months I was in Europe, it was my constant companion. It stored my photos, my music, my journal. It booked my flights and my accommodation, and it was the gateway to my life back home.

But now that I'm home, I don't use it that often. The limitations of a Mac can be stifling. Personally, I prefer a Windows system where I can see where everything is and how everything runs. Macs don't seem to give you that option. And I'm worried that once the thrill of buying an iMac dissipates, I'll be left with another Apple computer that won't let me organise the things the way I want or won't run the programs I like.

I suppose I could make an analogy to our 2-1 win against Liverpool in the Carling Cup last night. Incidentally, I looked up the result on an iMac in the Apple Store. And the new Mighty Mouse is an amazing piece of technology that I had an urge to pocket it and run for the doors.

Anyway, Arsenal is like the new 24-inch iMac - its beautiful lines and elegant design are coupled with underwhelming performance. Ramsey and Merida gave great performances, and looked like world-beaters, but you couldn't rely on them for a whole season. They just don't have the stamina to go the distance.

Liverpool is like a PC that's been cobbled together from various parts - while it gives you better performance, it lacks any sort of aesthetic appeal. After all the money spent this year, you'd think Benitez would've had a shinier team. After Torres and Gerrard, Liverpool looks a bit like a beige box.

I'm a bit disenchanted with the Carling Cup now. Beating Liverpool doesn't seem that big a deal, because you know it doesn't matter. Only the Premier League and the Champions League matter. The kids are good in patches, but Wenger doesn't think they're ready for regular spots. The real test comes with Spurs on the weekend, when players like Diaby and Eboue have to front up to their lacklustre performances and start putting the effort in.

Whatever the case, I think I'd better buy an iMac anyway. It's only about $2000 nowadays, and I won't really use it for much except for Internet and Championship Manager. It'll be awesome to watch the Arsenal play on a shitty 2-inch Internet stream on a new 24-inch iMac monitor. And as Arsene Wenger has shown with his Arsenal sides over the years, performance isn't everything and sometimes beauty is worthwhile for its own sake.